I recently found an investment writer who works for Microsoft by the name of Tren Griffin. This guy has found the top twelve investment Mungerism you should read about.
I was away from writing my blog for a little while, but I am back now. Today I will talk about the art of great investing as simple ideas executed with patience.
I can't but to mention Warren Buffett's simple idea finding cash generating business and being patient with time to build Berkshire Hathaway, and can you believe some fifty years after buying a saggy cotton fabric producing factory in Adams, Massachusetts it has become a cash generating unit capable of financing the any business venture. I dare to say, the bigger the business the better for Berkshire and Buffett.
Buffett was a business stripper and an asset raider searching for cash or cheap float to redeploy and grow like a rolling snowball gathering mass. He is like a tortoise, patient and long living.
Another grand announcement and media chase for Warren Buffett in his economic castle building pursuit with his mega-spending exercise. $37 Billion for Precision Castparts? He clearly paid premium in this case and that is not normal as he much rather deep discount value investing, but this time around he is talking about earning growth. Funny he is into the airline business again.
I recall him talking about calling a 1-800 number to get counsel on not getting into the airline business again. This time is different and surely don't rhyme with his last airline business investment. The barriers of entry is huge and the aerospace industry requires massive human capital for any possible competition to get a leg up on Precision Castparts.
My interest would to see how this mega merger is structured. In a low interest environment Mr. Buffett has secured a $10 Billion loan to assist with acquisition and just maybe the rest will come from insurance float.
Buffett is constantly growing the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate and mapping up some ordinary business with extraordinary economic defense around their economic castle. His personal jet "The Indefensible" now has a home and Net Jet has a sugar daddy to take care of them both.
My last blog spoke about alternative asset classes for investment selection in a broad way in terms of the options available and I listed some of major alternatives available for capital allocation.
The investment option of particular interest to me is the sovereign wealth funds (SWF) and its management and investment selection.
What kind of returns is expected from a sovereign wealth fund investment?
Who benefits the most from the capital assets deployed?
Political Considerations:
Sovereign fund wealth would appear to form part of an political agenda for the SWF controlling interest and by that I mean the government since most sovereign is owned by the governments in some form of pension fund or some other organized structure.
The politics of it is the Chinese/United States exchange. The Chinese moves into Africa peacefully to build out road network and target infrastructure development while at the same time finding work for four hundred million Chinese nationals into these areas of operations i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Jamaica. The Chinese do this without the threat of war and they don't give a rat's ass about your local conditions, except to provide an appeasing response to a request to help further their cause. The US strategy is somewhat different.
The Americans enters these post Chinese entrance countries and present rhetoric of human rights breaches and corruption as being the root cause for low to no economic growth in these countries i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya and Jamaica. These arguments threaten to disrupt the existing relationship with the Chinese investments in these countries. The Chinese is not looking at population size and distribution channels coming from one place all at once and doesn't seems to be focusing on a mass market model in a concentrated manner, but the Chinese instead appears to like a disperse multiple market model concentrated by continent.
The Chinese is not about rhetoric and seek to make progress to advance their race. Their SWF sets the tone of their intentions and it also accounts for their economic growth too. Their economic success is not only as a result of internal economic growth. Their growth is also what comes from their SWF invested internationally.
I found ten alternative asset classes for investment selection or options when exploring capital deployment of your cash consideration. These are all collective investment scheme intended to provide higher than normal yield to the investor with a presumption that an individual investment account may not do as well.
A sovereign wealth fund is not called a wealth fund for no reason. Andrew Ang explains this well. (see video)
Courtesy of Columbia Business School
Other forms of alternative investment options are not government based investments similar a to sovereign wealth, but are mostly private base investments. A Mutual Fund is a privately held or sponsored collective investment scheme that is organized as a open end fund or closed end fund. In recent years we have seen a cousin of a mutual fund that has seen the birth of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
The cost associated with the different alternative investment schemes does vary and may depend on funds under management or some other variable that determine the fees charged. I never like a managed account. Why? Because without proper control your account can be churned to drive up fees for the manager without consideration for the best return or yield for the investor.
There is also what is called a Family Office that is a little different from most alternative investment and generally more selective and holistic in its investment approach. There are single and multiple family offices. Hedge Funds sometimes start these operations when they no longer need public investors to fund their investment ideas. Hedge fund fees are expensive; the managers will generally take up to twenty percent (20%) of return on investment plus management fees minus operating expenses depending on the strategy used.
Private Equity is slightly different, but have some similarities to other collective investment schemes. You can start a private equity firm too; it is not hard if you know what you are doing. It is not a venture capital fund, but may provide venture capital at times. Then there is also the angel investor who operates a little different from the others.
Finally, we are down to the conglomerate and I just can't help myself but to talk about Berkshire Hathaway ran by Warren Buffett. There are other conglomerate ran by different people, Mr. Prem Watsa runs Fairfax out of Canada.
I have been lending brain power to an idea that resides in an argument suggesting that population growth is critical to achieving economic growth. I also want to suggest that population growth is also what jump starts a nation's economic engine towards economic success.
The first question to ask is why would I be thinking like that?
So here is why;
Greece vs Singapore
Let us look at Greece for example on one hand, Greece population growth has been experiencing a marginal decline in population over the last couple of years and has not had a robust population growth in the last fifty (50) years. A mere 32% aggregate population growth from 1960 to 2015, this coupled with an aging population with progressive retirement age and high youth unemployment. Singapore on the other hand, is a different kettle of fish when compared to Greece in population growth over a similar fifty (50) years period as they experienced an aggregate population growth (Singapore) of 232% and would appear to have continuous pop growth going into the near future, at least for now. Both countries have high debt to gross domestic product ratios when compared though not necessarily in the same magnitude, but high nonetheless.
Greece Debt
Greece is currently experiencing economic turmoil with the IMF and euro zone on its back and that in addition to a debt to GDP burden in the range of 180%. On the another continent outside of Europe, the Singapore economy has a debt to GDP rate of 99%, but no economic turmoil or at least no breaking news to run the circuit. I used Singapore as a comparison because they have no crisis in population growth which has essentially grown by 28% over five years and going. The Singapore condition is a complete reverse situation when compared to Greece, in term of population growth.
Nations need hands on board to do the work and to produce in order to boost export and improve gross national income. Nations need bodies to run factory floors and move goods and provide support services. The Greece challenge (video) will not go away without government spending and since debt repayment is competing for that dollar, the only thing that can help is the engagement of more people on the economic beltway.
An rapidly aging population does not help a country's cause enough to sufficiently grow the economy unless with massive government spending as is the case with Japan who decided against austerity like Greece.
I move now to draw my conclusion in saying that; with a slow to no increase in population growth rate, a country runs the risk of experiencing a slow to no economic growth rate almost in lock step.
What I'll say finally without the full test of all the numbers per country is that a growing population commands more;
housing solution (construction)
learning institutions (education)
support infrastructure (transportation)
banking services ( financial and insurance)
communication (ICT development).
The country's economic engine will jump start on these five pillars as long as the political conditions are stable, the impact of crime is tolerable and natural disaster is kept at bay.
When Warren Buffett bought Nebraska Furniture Mart (NMF) from Rose Blumkin it was done on a handshake. No inventory check or auditing due diligence. The Blumkin motto of "sell cheap and tell truth" must have been instructive in allowing for Buffett's decision to buy NFM. But this Buffett buy like others would have come to his attention because of a perceived value.
In the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, he made mention of the intrinsic value of a company and I suspect that Warren Buffett saw where he could enable NFM to create greater value in the future despite any risk posed by the furniture market.
My thoughts are that a simple analysis went into the Buffett buy decision that is:
the USA population will continue to grow into the future
people will need household furniture when they move out of their parent's house
the buyers will buy from the cheapest price place no matter where that value lies.
What I have learnt from value creation investment is that; they are formed around simple steadfast concept executed over long period of time without a wavering strategy.
Most great companies lead off with a strong motto and they stick to it for many years into the future;
Recently I have been attending general shareholder's meetings in the companies I have an investment. What I have found is that most attendees or otherwise passive minority shareholders know very little about what the companies should be doing to create greater shareholder value let alone the risk free nature of their investment.
Board Members @ Sagicor
The company's management is at liberty to say whatever they want with the assumption that they are responding to questions that the passive minority shareholders may want answers to. Some boards of directors are frank and courteous and some are really just dodgy and unfriendly to passive minority shareholders.
However, I particularly liked the lessons I learned at the Sagicor Investment shareholder's meeting this past week. A minority shareholder asked about the credit card business of the bank subsidiary of Sagicor and was flatly told that the bank had to take risk, but that was not the lesson. The chairman went further into sharing with the shareholder that the greatest loss suffered by the company was on risk free investments and he alluded to the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) debt restructuring program. The GOJ debt restructuring exercise titled JDX and NDX were most impacting to the company's bottom line as it had cost many investors millions in foregone interest payments and mention other counter party losses. GOJ effectively defaulted on their bonds and recalled the bonds at a lower interest rate. Some investors collected their principle and whatever pro rata interest earned up to that point and found another home for the cash. The notion of risk free investment in government papers is no longer as safe as once thought and no matter what the minority shareholder believed the ultimate decision rest with the GOJ. Look at what is happening in Greece now.
Greece is in a similar situation as Jamaica was a couple of years ago and the tailspin of their debt restructuring effort will resonate across all of Euro Zone at bigger scale by far when compared. No one can believe that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be so beaten back by its debtor, and this is not like that there won't be consequences, but there is a stand off between Greece and IMF and they are not talking to each other now. Even at this level there is no such thing as risk free investment.
The question for the passive minority investor is, what is the extent of the loss that one will suffer in the worst case scenario should the risk be realized? On one hand banks will, in most cases, have the option to resort to a collateral of greater value than the ordinary loan issued. But in the case of a credit card, the bank charges, what I regard, as excessive usury to compensate for loan default. The concept of "win on a lot" will cancel out the "loss of a few". The passive minority investor unlike the bank has nothing more than a piece of paper with a perceived value, but it gets worse if the investor have no say. The passive minority investor really don't have much power to do much other than to sell your shares and vote with your feet. A t least that exercise don't have to be a standoff.
There is no risk free investment, but make sure there is some margin of safety.
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